The governing party's poll ratings have improved but they're only just ahead of Reform

The consistent message of the opinion polls since the new prime minister walked into Downing Street almost a fortnight ago is that Labour is enjoying a "Burnham bounce". And this has now been confirmed by the party's convincing victory in Thursday's Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election. Polls conducted in the last week put Labour on average in the mid 20s. It is the party's highest standing since the beginning of last year and compares to their rating of 19% in late June when Sir Keir Starmer announced he was standing down. But with Reform polling only narrowly behind Labour, Burnham's party still has a long way to go before it can face the prospect of fighting a general election with confidence. All but one of the recent mid-term changes of prime minister have been followed by an increase in the popularity of the incumbent government. Support for Labour rose by seven points after Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair in 2007, while the Conservatives enjoyed a six-point bounce when Boris Johnson took over from Theresa May in 2019. Only Liz Truss' arrival in Downing Street in 2022 – which was overshadowed by the death shortly thereafter of Queen Elizabeth II – failed to give her party a boost. We should also bear in mind the depth of the electoral hole that Burnham has inherited as Labour leader. The 19% at which Labour stood when Sir Keir resigned was the lowest poll rating passed on by any prime minister departing mid-term – even lower than the 23% bequeathed by Liz Truss when she resigned after just 45 days in office. Against that backdrop, it would have been very surprising indeed if the replacement of the deeply unpopular Sir Keir by the relatively popular Burnham had not given Labour a short-term boost. However, even after Mr Burnham's bounce, his party's poll average is still the lowest for any newly minted mid-term PM, while the party is still well adrift in the polls of the (relatively low) 35% it won at the 2024 general election. That said, Labour's victory in Thursday's Manchester Mayoral by-election was convincing. True, Labour's 47% share of the first preference vote was well down on the 63% that Andy Burnham secured in the last mayoral contest shortly before the 2024 general election. However, not only did it represent a near doubling of the 24% that Labour registered across the region in May's local elections, but also it was even four points up on Labour's tally locally in the 2024 general election – and thus a much better performance than would have been anticipated from even the latest national polling. But with still no more than a narrow lead over Reform, it is unsurprising Burnham has ruled out an early election. In any event, Reform's displacement from first place in the polls for the first time in over a year appears to owe more to its own difficulties than it does to Labour's new-found popularity.