Article URL: https://alexiglad.github.io/blog/2026/explorative_modeling/ Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49135245 Points: 42 # Comments: 12

Website: https://explorative-modeling.github.io/ GitHub: https://github.com/alexiglad/XM TLDR: We introduce Explorative Modeling, a new paradigm for generative modeling that acts as a third pretraining axis when added to existing generative models, and also enables end-to-end generation. Increasing exploration monotonically improves existing models across images, video, and language, and the gains grow with scale (7%→36% with data, 13%→23% with parameters). Concretely, Explorative Models (XMs) reach 6.2× sample efficiency, 4.1× FLOP efficiency, and 47% better parameter efficiency. Exploration also enables scaling generalization, and scaling how end-to-end existing models are. As end-to-end generative models, XMs match diffusion on control tasks with up to 256× less inference compute. Let me start with a question that sounds simple. If I ask a model to “generate a dog”, how many correct answers are there? It turns out there are a lot… likely billions or more images that we could count as dog images. So what happens if we train a neural network to directly predict dog images? The model sees thousands of different valid dogs during training, and the single prediction closest to all of them is their average. That’s what the model learns to output, and the average of thousands of dogs looks nothing like a dog, it’s a brown blur. To make this concrete, let’s play a game. I’m going to throw darts at the board below, and each dart will land somewhere random on the rings. Your job is to guess where my next dart will land, and the further off you are, the worse your score. So where should you guess? It turns out the guess that minimizes your error is the exact middle of the board.1 We trained a model to play this game, and sure enough, it guesses the middle every time (this is the optimal prediction here)! This is terrible though… the middle is almost never where a dart actually lands. The “optimal” guess is a spot that no darts ever land.