Article URL: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/08/why-do-fewer-renters-expect-to-move/ Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49195958 Points: 19 # Com…

Americans are moving less than they used to. Moving rates have declined steadily for decades, falling from close to 20 percent annually in the mid-1980s to below 10 percent by 2019. This decline has persisted through business cycles and has been evident across all regions, and has affected a broad range of demographic groups. Falling mobility matters because moving helps households access job opportunities, adjust to changing circumstances, and improve their housing situations. In this post, we show that the decline in mobility also holds for renters, with growing challenges to owning a home being an important contributing factor. We use data from the annual New York Fed SCE Housing Survey to study renters’ expected mobility and the factors that shape it. Renter mobility is important as renters account for roughly a third of U.S. households and, unlike homeowners, are not subject to mortgage rate lock-in. Since expected mobility predicts actual moving behavior, it provides an early signal of where residential mobility is headed before moves occur. Renters’ Expected 3-Year Mobility Fell 20 Percentage Points in the Last 12 Years The chart above shows the mean three-year probability of moving to a different primary residence for homeowners and renters over time. Both groups have seen a steady decline in expected mobility, with some acceleration in the decline after the pandemic. The mean three-year moving probability for renters fell from roughly 57 percent in 2014 to about 37 percent in 2026, while homeowners’ mean moving probability fell from about 21 percent to 14 percent over the same period. Relative to their initial levels, expected mobility declined somewhat more for renters than for homeowners. For renters, moving can be closely associated with the decision to become a homeowner. In the SCE, we measure this by asking renters for the percent chance that they will ever own a home. As shown in the above chart, renters’ average probability of ever owning a home declined from roughly 52 percent in 2015 to about 35 percent by 2025, with the decline especially sharp after 2021. In the next chart, we show that the renters with reduced expectations about future homeownership are precisely the ones who do not expect to move in the near future. Renters who report a low probability of ever owning a home (0–20 percent chance) have a mean three-year moving probability of about 25 percent. This figure compared with about 76 percent among those who are nearly certain they will own (81–100 percent)—a difference of more than 50 percentage points across the distribution. These patterns raise a natural question: what is driving renters’ declining expectations of ever owning a home? Two explanations suggest themselves. First, renters may increasingly find homeownership unaffordable, due to perceptions of higher mortgage rates, home prices, and associated costs. Second, renters may simply no longer want to own a home as much as they once did—a shift in preferences rather than affordability. We examine each in turn. One key factor in renters’ path to homeownership is whether they can obtain a mortgage at an affordable rate. In the SCE, we ask renters how difficult they expect it would be to obtain a mortgage and what rate they expect to receive if they applied today. The next chart shows both measures over time.